No insight, juts drunk picks live from Vegas. Bardo, Davo, Petey, Rosie & Niles reporting w/Mike the Master.
Broncos -9.5 vs. CHIEFS
Browns +3.5 @ BENGALS
JAGUARS -7 vs Texans
Cardinals +1.5 @ JETS
SAINTS -5 vs. 49ers
PANTHERS -7 vs. Panthers
TITANS-3 vs. Vikings
Packers +1.5 @ BUCS
RAMS +8 vs. Bills
Chargers -7.5 @ RAIDERS
COWBOYS -11 vs. Redskins
Eagles -3 vs. BEARS
STEELERS -5.5 vs. Ravens
Sep 18
Thanks to the Panthers-Bears push and the Texans-Ravens impromptu bye week it became very tough for me to hit my 10-win promise, but I did manage to put up 9 wins before Sunday night. My lock of the week got a little tense in the 4th quarter, but like always I prevailed thanks to the fact that Jon Kitna is a worse closer than Eric Gagne. I blew the Sunday-nighter because I had no idea about the 40 mph winds, and because Mike Tomlin refused to kick a field goal with 20 seconds left to pad his lead. I blew the Monday-nighter because it was just a circus of a game. But no excuses…9-5 isn’t a bad Sunday.
This week is extremely tough to bet on, since the power houses (Philly, Pitt, Dallas and Green Bay) are all playing each other, as are 6 of the shit houses (KC, Detroit, Coldlanta, St. Louis, Seattle and San Fran). Because of this I am going to refrain from betting extensively, aside from the usual $20 on my lock and four separate four-team $5 parlays on the rest of my picks.
Since I’m taking Week 3 about as seriously as high school Spanish class, I have decided to further alienate my readership. Instead of providing any insight on the games I will simply explain why the match-up reminds me of a specific quote or character from HBO’s The Wire. If you didn’t watch the show than you don’t deserve to enjoy this…
The Picks (home team in caps):
FALCONS -6 over Chiefs
BILLS -9.5 over Raiders
The Jimmy McNulty Game.
GIANTS -13.5 over Bengals
Cardinals +3 over REDSKINS
BEARS -3 over Bucs
The Deputy Commish Bill Rawls Game.
Rams +9.5 over SEAHAWKS
The Omar Game.
Lions +4 over 49ERS
BRONCOS -5.5 over Saints
Steelers +3.5 over EAGLES
COLTS -5.5 over Jaguars
Browns +2 over RAVENS
Cowboys -3 over PACKERS
Jets +9 over CHARGERS
The Bunk Moreland Game.
Last Week: 9-5
Sep 15
by Josh Bard
I feel similarly about the predicting things relating to the NFL as I do going to strip clubs. I like to get in there and get my bearings before making any rash decisions. At a strip club, you want to get comfortable with your surroundings, try to find the best location, take a gander at the personnel; basically do a little research before committing to anything. Picking NFL games is pretty much the same thing. Just like you don’t walk in and start throwing around bills like they’re nothing, you don’t jump in and start making rash predictions like the Bills will be nothing.
Panthers- Like ShamWow, I don’t really get how this works, but you can’t argue with results, and they’ve cleaned up two big stains.
Titans- You can’t win a SuperBowl with Kerry Collins and good defense but you can sure cover a lot of spreads.
Chargers- As usual, the Chargers softness will ultimately undermine their ridiculous talent.
Raiders- What do you even say about a team that announces it will fire its coach after the game and still beats a division opponent on the road?
PLAYING FOR A DRAFT PICK: Dolphins, Chiefs, Lions, RamsSep 11
As we enter Day 4 of the Post-Brady Season I find myself more and more able to cope with the loss of my hero. I am actually (frighteningly) optimistic about the upcoming season. I said it Sunday and I’ll say it today, these guys still finish 11-5. Matt Cassel isn’t Tom Brady but he knows the system and he can throw the ball. The pieces he has around him are incredible. The defense will step up, and as long as the O-line can play like they did during the 2007 regular season and not like they did in the Super Bowl then we will be able to make a serious run at this. The Chargers, Colts and Jags all stunk last week…the AFC is wide open.
Enough of my ranting, lets move ahead to Week 2. I finished at a disappointing 9-7 after completely underrating the home teams on Monday night. The good thing for me was that I only bet on the 9 and stayed away from the 7, so financially speaking I had as good a week as I ever have. I also dominated both my fantasy games behind McNabb and Westbrook, won my priority picks league, escaped with a Pats win in Pick’Em, and nailed a 5-team parlay as well as cashing in on my 3 locks (Steelers, Jets, Eagles). If it weren’t for one specific anterior cruciate ligament I would have had the best Sunday of my life. But again, I regress.
9-7 isn’t bad, but it isn’t 60%. Week 2 has some tough lines but I think I can pull out 10 wins. Tricky thing is, I can’t tell you which will be the 10 winners, so you’re best bet is to put $20 on the ones you like and then load up on my LOTW.
I’m burnt out from my RR/RW Challenge preview so there won’t be much analysis…
CHIEFS -3.5 over Raiders
KC hung with the Pats, Oakland looked like shit on Monday.
Titans +1 over BENGALS
I think we can all finally come to terms with the fact that Cincy is terrible. The only reason they’re favored is because of the “Vince Young Situation,” which I think is irrelevant because the Titans are better with Kerry Collins at this point.
Colts -2 over VIKINGS
Minnesota’s D is filthy and Indy played like dog shit against the Bears, but they should be able to throw the ball around a bit against an average secondary.
REDSKINS PK over Saints
I bet against New Orleans in my upset special last week and was half a point away from nailing it. This week they play a good defense, on the road, without their best offensive weapon Marques Colston who is out 4-6 weeks (yeah Reggie, you heard me). Vegas wants you to take the Saints…don’t fall into the trap.
Lock of the Week:
Packers -3 over LIONS
I’m not in love with Aaron Rodgers yet, but Detroit just got smoked by the Atlanta Fucking Falcons. The Packers have a great defense and a balanced offense. This line is as insulting as my lock last week (Steelers -6…they won 38-17). Take it to the bank.
PANTHERS -3 over Bears
Lots of games I’m not sure of this week, so if you notice that I’m taking a lot of home teams then you have found my security blanket.
Giants -8.5 over RAMS
I really don’t like this line, but based on Week 1 performances I can’t in my right mind take St. Louis. I will however go ahead and predict a huge game from Stephen Jackson, 2nd RB behind Westbrook on the White Cassels.
JAGUARS -5.5 over Bills
Bills looked great against the Seahawks, Jags looked terrible against the Titans. Still, the Jags are a playoff team favored by less than 6, at home, against a Trent Edwards-led non-playoff team. This would be a candidate for lock of the week if Roscoe Parrish didn’t scare the piss out of me.
BUCS -7 over Falcons
Theres no way Monte Kiffin lets these guys run all over them the way Detroit did. Atlanta will suffer a bad hangover game, don’t worry. Nobody goes into Ray-Jay and beats dem Bucs…WHO DAT!?!
SEAHAWKS -7 over 49ers
I have decided to pick these games based on what I would have done last year as opposed to my feelings after last week. I am probably going to pick teams that lost in Week 1 and I’m totally cool with it. After this week we’ll see who actually sucks, who just had a bad Sunday, who is actually for real and who just got lucky.
CARDINALS -6.5 over Dolphins
Another contender for Lock of the Week, except it violated my “Kurt Warner is never a lock for anything” rule.
Patriots +1.5 over BRETTS
The chip on the should is finally back! It took a couple years, but the New England Patriots are finally underdogs again. This will be a far cry from the Bill Belichick Fuck You Road Show of 2007, but the Pats would be better than the Jets with Keanu Reeves at quarterback. The only reason it isn’t my LOTW is because I don’t want to jinx anything.
TEXANS -4.5 over Ravens
Stay away from this game. Stay far far away. If you must bet on it then flip a coin. I just did.
Upset Special
BRONCOS +1.5 over Chargers
I’m loving Denver for 5 reasons:
1) I never bet against the Broncos in Mile High.
2) The Chargers never show up until Week 5.
3) Mike Shanahan vs. Norv Turner.
4) Brandon Marshall is back.
5) Philip Rivers SUCKS.
Steelers -6 over BROWNS
Cleveland is overrated the same way any team is overrated when they have good playmakers and no line or defense. The Steelers are a complete team and will have NO trouble in this one. Parlay the Packers-Steelers-Patriots, or do a 5-team 6-point teaser and include Arizona and the Giants. Thank me later.
COWBOYS -7 over Eagles
Security blanket. Going to be a great game.
Last Week: 9-7
Bill Simmons: 6-10
Sep 10
The latest installment of MTV’s Real World/Road Rules Challenge begins tonight with the premiere of The Island and Sports Fan Paradise would be dropping the ball if we didn’t provide some analysis. While the summary from mtv.com isn’t 100% conclusive as to how the game will be decided, it provides enough info for a fantasy draft, and for me to release some preliminary odds.
Show Summary:
Somewhere off the coast of Panama, 20 former Real Worlders and Road Rulers are dropped into shark-infested waters. After swimming for safety, they come upon The Island. Here, veterans and rookies alike will compete for a share of a $300,000 buried treasure during the latest season of The Real World/Road Rules Challenge. But this time around, say goodbye to weekly challenges because survival is the only challenge. Gone are the days when a comfy bed and a fully stocked bar greeted the contestants after a difficult day. On The Island, competitors will have to find their own food and shelter. Staying in the game won’t be half as hard as staying alive in the harsh jungle wilderness. And, for the first time ever, there are no predetermined teams going into this Real World/Road Rules Challenge. That means it’s up to the contestants to forge their own alliances — or not. Who will be left out? Who will opt to be a loner? Which alliances will be torn apart by treachery? Only time will tell…
Of course, the social aspect is only one facet of this complex competition. During their time on The Island, contestants must construct two boats that they will eventually use to reach a nearby island. On the other island, $300,000 in gold awaits the first four people to lay claim to it. How will they build these boats? Materials will be air-dropped in every few days, but it’s up to the contestants to assemble the pieces and make sure their vessels are seaworthy. Once the boats are complete, only eight key-holders will be allowed to board. In order to get a key, contestants must risk it all in a three-way face-off. Yup, each week three contestants do battle, and one leaves — leaves for the other island, that is. After each face-off, the winner receives a key, and one of the losers is voted off The Island.
Naturally, the rules can change at any time and no key-holder is ever completely safe. While friendships and alliances are extremely important in such a cutthroat game, romance just might trump them both. When old flames are reunited and new relationships emerge, anything can happen. Some contestants might let their hearts lead them right out of the game while others might try to charm their way to victory.
But no matter what happens, drama is inevitable. Anything goes in this 20-person melee, but only four will emerge victorious. It’s a race for buried treasure unlike any other, where staying alive is just as important as staying ahead of the game. Drama, heartbreak and treachery are all guaranteed, so just one question remains: who will conquer The Island?
So I know that was a little confusing, but I am going to base the odds on there being 4 winners, 2 guys and 2 girls. I’m not sure that gender will even have anything to do with it, but I can’t imagine coed face-offs. For the sake of gratuitous gambling lets assume I’m on target.
Now, why should you give a shit about my opinion on this? 3 reasons:
1) I dominated my Fantasy Gauntlet league this winter. It wasn’t even close, I ran away with it.
2) I picked Amanda to win Age of Love after the 3rd episode.
3) Nobody knows more about MTV Challenges as I do. Nobody. Well, maybe somebody, but nobody you know.
Lets get to the odds…
50-1 Ashlii, Real World Sydney
I gave up on this season of the Real World about halfway through, right when the chick with huge boobs left, so I don’t know that much about her replacement Ashlii. She seems like your typical immature girl who can’t wait to get on a challenge so the nation can watch her get banged by a guy like Brad or C.T. The only reason her odds aren’t 100-1 is because she is hot enough to get a guy like Abram or Derrick who could potentially carry her to the finals.
50-1 Kelly Anne, Real World Sydney
Like Ashlii, she is a newbie and doesn’t stand much of a chance. She was the nice girl on her season and their are 4 Sydney cast mates on the Island, so I suppose she could have a small alliance going for her. The fact is the Freshman just don’t do well on challenges. I don’t care if this one is different and if all the rules are thrown out the window…the newbs are gonna get pwned like they always do.
40-1 Colie, Real World: Denver
This is Colie’s 2nd challenge, which means she has an idea of what its all about, but I really don’t think that is going to help her. Lets face it, she is a terrible athlete. Like, one of the worst athletes I have ever seen. If I were stranded on a desert island she is probably the last person I would want to have my back. Her only advantage, like Ashlii and Kelly Anne, is to start banging Derrick and let him carry you to the finish, but based on the way most of the guys reacted to her shameless passes on Inferno 3 (”she was basically handing out her vagina, and we were like, ‘no thanks’”), she doesn’t stand a chance.
25-1 Johanna, Real World: Austin
The Peruvian Princess is coming off a “win” in the Gauntlet 3 (the Rookies were terrible but took the top prize because Eric was too fat to finish the final challenge) and I have to admit she was decent. She didn’t light the world on fire, but she was athletic enough so as not to stand out and manipulative enough to keep herself in the game. She broke up with Wes, so she has a chance to latch on with one of the stronger guys, but she isn’t one of the hottest girls on the island so I don’t see it happening. I like her chances in a team event, but she is definitely not a top-2 competitor. Long shot at best.
20-1 Tonya, Real World:Chicago, about 10-15 challenges and a couple softcore pornos
What is there to say about Tonya that hasn’t already been said? She is a slightly below average competitor with waaay below average mental stability. But for some reason I kind of like her in this challenge. If Tonya is anything, she is a survivor. She is like a cockroach, or Cher, and The Island seems like it is all about surviving, so I say she has a shot. The main thing that has plagued her on other challenges is that all the girls hate her and try to get her voted off (remember the “I Hate Tonya Club”?). This season, since it is every person for themselves, the fact that the rest of the bitches don’t like her shouldn’t be a disadvantage. Despite her lack of female support in the past, it has always seemed like most of the guys (Kenny, Derrick, Abram) like her, so she may have some of the top competitors in her corner. The only reason she isn’t at 10-1 odds is because there is always a strong chance she will emotionally combust halfway through the season.
10-1 Robin, Real World: San Diego
I don’t know the stats but this has to be Robin’s 7th or 8th challenge. Actually, hold on, Wikipedia exists for a reason…
…OK, so this is her 6th challenge. Whatever, I was close. I like Robin to do well in challenges because shes a tough bitch and nobody really wants to go against her in one-on-one competitions. She is also experienced and people like her, which means she avoids the chopping block more than others. That said, she has always leaned heavily on San Diego castmate Brad, and he is off making a real living this season. Still a bit of a long shot but she’ll have her opportunities.
10-1 Jenn, Real World: Denver
Some people might think these odds are a little too favorable, but I disagree. She showed a lot of spunk during Inferno III, winning a few 1-on-1 Infernos before finally being sent home. She is in good shape, shes scrappy, and most importantly she is hot as hell. I have her at 10-1 odds to win, but 2-1 odds to bang Abram on the first night. And trust me, Abram is a good guy to team up with.
4-1 Paula, Real World: Key West
1. Great athlete
2. Everyone likes her
3. Flies under the radar
4. Used to be anorexic so surviving on an island with no food shouldn’t be a challenge
5-2 Rachel, Road Rules: Campus Crawl
1. Veteran, this is her 5th challenge
2. Took a bath with Abram a few seasons ago…the guys love her
3. Lesbian
4. Personal trainer
5. I just need to reiterate that she is a lesbian personal trainer. Lets see Kelli Anne try and take her down.
1-1 Evelyn, Fresh Meat
This chick is a beast. One of the Veteran males on Gauntlet 3 said it best: “She is our 11th guy.” She is the strongest of the ladies by far, it isn’t even close. She dominates the female side more than Mike the Miz or Alton ever dominated the dudes. The sports equivalent of Ev in these challenges is like Bo Jackson in his prime playing against a Pop Warner team…and not one of those Pop Warner teams that wear the Under Armor and come from a tough neighborhood, I’m talking like Needham-Wellesley Pop Warner. If she weren’t a little stupid and easily manipulated her odds would be at about 1-5.
50-1 Ryan, Fresh Meat
I’ll admit that he showed some grit during the last season, winning a couple gauntlets and scoring some points for Bardo’s fruity fantasy team. And I suppose I should keep in mind that hes gay so all the girls love him, but how far can that take him? I don’t know about Dave, and Dunbar is a little questionable, but I don’t think he will have any homo-alliances this season. He doesn’t stand a chance.
30-1 Dave, Real World: Hollywood
In all honesty you should probably jump all over this bet. I say this because I know nothing about him, he could be a decent competitor. But I didn’t watch a minute of his season and I have never heard of this chump. He doesn’t look like anyone special and he probably doesn’t know one other person on the island. Good luck Dave, you’ll need it.
10-1 Dunbar, Real World: Sydney
10-1 Cohutta, Real World: Sydney
There are 4 Sydney cast members on this Challenge, more than any other. If they want to, and they play shit right, they have an instant alliance. Now, I think both of these toolbags are going to suck, but if the name of the game really is grouping together for survival, then the males on Team Sydney has at least a 10% chance.
8-1 Kenny, Fresh Meat
The most handsome guy on the challenge…or so he says (over and over again). Either way, Kenny is improving as an athlete and becoming more and more experienced, not missing a challenge since he made his Fresh Meat Debut (this will be his 4th). The thing with Kenny is that everyone thinks he’s hilarious, so they are less likely to vote him off.
8-1 Johnny, Real World: Key West
Another guy who has a big advantage because of his partying skills. Nobody wants to lose a guy named Johnny Bananas. I think this will be the first challenge where he puts winning over a good time though, but I still don’t think he is big enough to beat Tyrie, tough enough to beat Derrick or bad-ass enough to beat Abe.
6-1 Tyrie, Real World: Denver
These odds are extremely generous, considering islands are surrounded by water and Big Ty has yet to prove that he can swim. I do like the fact that he is by far the biggest guy there, however, and I don’t see anyone calling him out in any sort of duel where strength could be a factor.
6-1 Dan, Road Rules: Viewer’s Revenge
Like Dave, I have never seen this guy before in my life. I did read his bio though, and it says he’s an ex-Marine. Thats good enough for me.
2-1 Derrick, Road Rules: XTreme
What can you say about Derrick that hasn’t been said before? My Dad is 61 and all he knows about MTV is that Derrick is the man. He has the experience and the balls to survive anything, a staged island with a bunch of pussies in their early 20s should be a breeze.
3-2 Abram, Road Rules: South Pacific
Abe is the total package, and my first round choice in the MTV Challenge Fantasy League I participate in. He’s fast, strong, smart (relatively speaking, the same way Derek Jeter is considered “white” in Harlem), experienced, and cool enough that people want to keep him around. If you can’t tell, I’m a big Abram fan. Whatever, don’t judge me.
Sep 9
Disappointing loss tonight. I don’t want to make excuses for him but I was sitting right behind the bullpen and Pap didn’t star warming up until a minute or 2 after Bay heroically took the lead. Theres no way he was loose. Masterson had been up since the 7th, he should have gotten then ball in the 9th.
The game wasn’t without a classic bleacher picture though. I think I’ll title this one “Attending the Red Sox 457th consecutive sellout…so easy a caveman could do it.”
And I feel pretty bad for that girl in the backwards hat. I got kind of excited when a beach ball was approaching me and proceeded to spike it right in her face. My bad.
Sep 8
by Josh Bard
Do we play an entire season with Matt “I haven’t started since we lost to Poly in the 3rd round of the playoffs when I was in high school” Cassel or go after a veteran? I’m not sure any of the guys available can pick up our system and do any better. I still say we go 11-5 our schedule is a joke.
On a happier note, I hit the first 5-team parlay of my life today. Steelers-Eagles-Chiefs-Jets-Cardinals. Made for a fairly lucrative Sunday.
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