I have never claimed to know anything about music. I can’t tell which contestant is a better singer. I am tone deaf. But like I said on January 13th, I have my finger on the pulse of America. It’s a gift, I guess.

In that same post I guaranteed that Ashley Rodriguez would make it to the top 3. This was after the season premiere, after only seeing 1 city (mine) audition. It was as ballsy a call as I have ever made but I am sticking with it. I can’t tell the difference between an alto and a soprano but I know reality TV like I know the back of my hand, and I know the back of my hand very very well. I was sleeping on it just a minute ago.

American Idol, like anything, goes through phases. There is an ebb and a flow. The last 2 years have been all-male finals, with an edgy rocker against a kid who looked 12-years-old. This year is a ladies’ year, I feel it in my bones.

With that in mind, here are my odds as of 2/19. These are based somewhat on scattered memories of their auditions but mostly based on the picture on the AI website.

That’s how easy this shit is sometimes.


Alex Lambert: 100-1
For the same reason a guy named Jim McCain won’t be a strong candidate for president in 2012. America votes for change.

Casey James: 100-1
Has the look, but not the voice. Anybody this shocked every time he advances doesn’t have “it”.

Aaron Kelly: 100-1
Too young, too David Archuleta.

Todrick Hall: 100-1
Too dramatic.

John Park: 100-1
Too token.

Lee Dewyze: 100-1
Too Karaoke.

Lilly Scott (below, right): 100-1
She looks like a cross between Harry from Dumb & Dumber and the Albino from the Pit of Despair in Princess Bride.

Tyler Grady: 100-1
I like the 70’s rocker thing and I think America will enjoy hearing him cover songs. Definitely a Top-12 candidate but he doesn’t have the voice to win.

Joe Munoz: 100-1
I think he is different enough (see: Latino) that he will make the Top 12. He is also young enough (20) to mature before America’s eyes and make a run. But still a long shot.

Haeley Vaughn: 25-1
Like Munoz, she is different (see: black country singer). She will have some great performances and some terrible ones and stick around for a while, but she doesn’t have the experience to win.

Janell Wheeler: 50-1
Katelyn Epperly: 50-1
Both have the looks, neither have the voice.

Siobahan Magnus: 25-1
Cape Cod represent! She definitely has the pipes but I don’t think she has the likability.

Jermaine Sellers: 25-1
He probably has the best male voice in the show but he may be too much of a diva.

Andrew Garcia: 25-1
When you cover Paula Abdul and get the video posted on this website you have already made it big. Andrew (above, center) is one of my favorites and I think he’ll be around for a long time, I just don’t see him pulling enough votes from the people who actually text the show.

Crystal Bowersox: 20-1
Like Andrew she is one of my favorites. The girl can sing and rock out on the guitar and I think she’ll give a bunch of memorable performances. That said, she’s too indie and her teeth are an abomination.

Lacey Brown (above, left): 20-1
She is definitely going to fill the punk quota in the Top 12 but the punk girl never wins, always an emotional 5th or 6th place.

Michael Lynche: 20-1
Big Mike is the man. He is going to get TONS of votes early on seeing how much air time he got during Hollywood week thanks to the birth of his baby. He is extremely entertaining and may go farther than any other guy, but like I said, it’s the year of the ladies.

Tim Urban: 20-1
Have you seen this kid? He’s like Jonathan Taylor-Thomas circa 1996 and he can sign. 13-year-old girls are going to stay up all night texting votes for him, posing the most serious threat to the women.

Michelle Delamor: 15-1
They barely showed her during Hollywood week so I don’t have much analysis, except she may look too much like Jordin Sparks. How many times to I have to say it? AMERICA WANTS CHANGE! If she avoids an early exit she could certainly make a run though.

Paige Miles: 15-1
Great smile, great voice. I like her to start slow and then heat up come tournament time. Very much like a Tom Izzo team.

Didi Benami: 15-1
She has the best mix of looks, voice and back-story. Still I just don’t think she is going to be able to sing well enough when it comes down to it. Look for her to make a run at the Top 5 but I don’t think she is your next American Idol. Carrie Underwood set the bar too high for cute blondes.

Katie Stevens: 9-1
The judges anointed her the front-runner and I don’t disagree. That said, it takes a special toughness to go wire-to-wire and generally 17-year-olds from Middlebury, Connecticut aren’t all that tough.

Ashley Rodriguez: 5-1
The field is still too big to call her the odds-on favorite, but she has been my girl from the beginning so I’m sticking with her. If the Chelsea, MA native doesn’t win she will DEFINITELY make me look good on my Top 3 prediction. She has the look and the voice, but more importantly the look. Brace yourselves America, it’s Ash-Rod time.

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