I told myself I wouldn’t gamble on the Super Bowl this year. It’s a good match-up, I said. You’ll enjoy watching the game regardless, I said. You don’t need to have money on it for it to be exciting, I said.
And I was cool with it. 2009 wasn’t exactly the most successful gambling season I have ever had, thanks to Brett Favre taking a huge dump on my 6-team parlay on Week 7. I still have nightmares about his fumble to Lamar Woodley and then pathetic non-attempt to make the tackle. I thought he wasn’t just a quarterback, but a football player. I guess tackling isn’t part of just having fun out there. Asshole.
Anyway, like I said, I was totally down to just enjoy a chili dip, some wings and and few adult beverages and watch two great teams go at it. I didn’t even do a squares pool at my office like I usually do, and I have run one of those every year since Bills-Cowboys. And I’m talking the first Bills-Cowboys Super Bowl. I was like 8-years-old. None of that this year. But then Bodog emailed me inviting me to gamble on any number of the many prop bets that have been set up for the game. And of course, I caved.
What can I say? I live for the action.
Length Carrie Underwood will sing national anthem:
Over 1:42: +135
Under 1:42: -165
1:42 seems high considering she has only sang the anthem above that once (2005 NBA Finals) when she clocked in at 1:43. She dropped a 1:40 at the NFC Championship Game in 2006, but has gotten faster since then, with a 1:38 at the 2006 MLB All-Star Game and a 1:35 before Game 3 of the 2007 World Series. A 1:36 at the Coca-Cola 600 a few years back is also pushing me towards the under, but you can’t trust NASCAR stats.
To properly bet on this you need to factor in 3 things: The singer, the moment, and the odds. Underwood has seen a lot of success since her 1:35 in 2007, and she is definitely in the diva discussion. The confidence that comes with that influences one to want to hear their voice for as long as possible. The moment is huge, there is no greater stage in America. And the odds, at +135, make the over an enticing bet.
So there you have it, $20 on the over. I think she carries it to at least 1:44.
Result of coin toss:
Heads: -105
Tails: -105
Tails never fails. Except for this Sunday. $10 on heads.
Team to score first:
Colts: -150
Saints: +120
The NFC has won 12 straight coin tosses in the Super Bowl. If the Saints get the ball first they will most likely score on that first possession, since Sean Payton usually scripts successful opening drives. +120 is a solid bet. Throw $20 on it.
First scoring play of the game:
How about New Orleans Field Goal at 4/1 odds? Like I said, the Saints should start with it and move the ball, but Indy has an underrated defense. Also, you have to factor in nerves accounting for a dropped 3rd and 5 pass on the first drive. Hartley FG for the win, Tom. $10.
Team to call the first coaches challenge of the game:
Saints -115
Colts -115
EASY MONEY. Sean Payton challenges a lot. I don’t have a specific stat but he led the league in tossing red flags in 2008. They will most likely be behind in the 1st half and may get desperate. Plus, I still don’t have proof that the Colts have a head coach. Last time I checked it was a cardboard cutout of Lovie Smith disguised by a royal blue hat and sweater vest. Put $10 on New Orleans.
Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game?
Yes +170
No -210
Did I read this correctly? I can get a buck-seventy on my dollar if each team kicks a field goal?? 33 yards isn’t a bomb, that’s a below-average length. I know everybody expects a shootout but I can’t stress enough that these two teams have solid defenses. That will be the story at the end of the game. I see some a few bend-but-don’t-break stands. Put $20 on “Yes” and enjoy the $34 in return.
Total number of field goals missed by both teams:
Over 1: +350
Under 1: -500
Some call it “hedging your bet” but I call it not being a dumb ass. This is the easiest insurance bet of the decade. Put $10 on the over and cover yourself for the $20 you put on each team making one. AGAIN, points will be at more of a premium then everyone is projecting, they WILL be trying long kicks. Seriously, this prop bet thing is like stealing money.
Odds to win Super Bowl MVP:
Peyton Manning: 10/17
Drew Brees: 2/1
Reggie Wayne: 10/1
Reggie Bush: 8/1
ETC…
This is probably the toughest bet of all to win money on. I always struggle with MVP betting, and I’m the guy who correctly bet on B.J. Upton to hit the 1st homer of the game in BACK-TO-BACK GAMES during the 2008 ALCS getting 20-1 and 15-1 odds respectively.
The Colts are clearly the favorites and in that case Peyton is clearly the favorite for MVP. Still, 10/17 odds just aren’t worth it, but betting on another Colt doesn’t make sense either, so the only smart money is to go with a Saint. Brees is the clear favorite there, but 2-1 odds won’t turn your $5 into anything meaningful, and I wouldn’t advise betting more than a 5-spot on something that you’re so unsure of.
If the Saints win it will most likely be because of their defense. The leader of that group all season has been Darren Sharper, who is getting 28/1 odds to take home the honor. I’m not saying it’ll happen, but if New Orleans wants to win their secondary will have to step up. If you’re going to throw a few bucks at anyone it might as well be Sharper. $140 come to Papa.
Total Receptions for Donald Brown:
Over 1.5: +140
Under 1.5: -170
The Saints have been notorious for hitting guys in the mouth, especially QBs and RBs. Expect Peyton to get pressured and Addai to get knocked out for a play or series here and there. Manning will be looking to dump it off to avoid pressure at Brown will be the safety valve. At least twice. Put $10 on the over.
Total Receiving Yards for Marques Colston:
Over 75.5: -130
Under 75.5: Even
I have never been a huge Colston fan. I feel like most of the Saints’ big plays go to Henderson or Meachem. Brees will be throwing a lot but the key to a New Orleans victory will be running the rock and controlling the clock. I feel confident putting $15 on the Under.
OK, by my calculations we have wagered $130 so far. I am setting a personal limit at $150, even though I’m confident I’ll be in the positive come Monday.
With my last $20 I’m going to make a bold parlay, taking Indy at -5 and the Under (57). I can’t say it enough, the defenses will decide it. I’ll officially take the Colts 31-24.
And, yes, I’m aware that I have a gambling issue.
