Well, I finally did it. I had a great feeling about last week and my picks came through, I just really wish i had put some real cash down…stupid Congress and their stupid legislation.
I finished Week 5 at 11-3, raising my season record to 21-15-3, a much needed improvement.
I usually wait until Friday to make my picks, but some of the early lines for Sunday were too enticing to pass up, I want to jump on them before they move. Now that I have a winning record I feel like I can also provide some insight into my decisions…you know, to spread the knowledge.
CHIEFS (+3) over Bengals
I would love to say that this will be the week that Larry Johnson shows up, seeing that they’re playing against a terrible run defense and all, but he is not the same runner he was last year. Still, I think that he improves on his 55 yards per game this week. The one thing the Chiefs do well is defend the pass, and the Bungles might be rusty coming off a bye…I’m going with an upset.
JAGUARS (-6.5) over Texans
No great insight here, I just like the fact that Maurice Jones-Drew woke up last week and the fact that Andre Johnson is still hurt.
BROWNS (-4.5) over Dolphins
The whole Trent Green thing could prove to be a spark for Miami, but they just aren’t that good and don’t seem to care too much. Plus, I picked up Derek Anderson on my fantasy team (who, as the CBS announcers informed us Saturday, is called “DA” by his teammates…the creativity astounds me) so I’m looking for some STAAATS.
Vikings (+5.5) over BEARS
This game is going to be so ugly. I’m taking the Viks because I can’t see one team winning this one by a touchdown, it will almost surely come down to a missed field goal or a safety. Not going to be pretty, something like Bears 18 Vikings 13.
Eagles (-3) over JETS
With Brian Westbrook returning to Philly’s offensive attack I don’t see the Eagles scoring less than 20, and I’ll take Donovan McNabb over Chad Pennington anytime.
Rams (+9.5) over RAVENS
I have been picking the underdog Rams every week and every week they let me down. I know that the week change it up they will come up big. Not this week. Not on my watch.
Titans (+3) over BUCS
Vince Young just wins football games. So what if he throws more picks than touchdowns? He is 9-2 in his last 11 games. Combine Young with a Titan’s defense that has allowed less than 15 points per game facing a depleted Tampa Bay backfield and you have an easy road win.
PACKERS (-3) over Redskins
The Pack are a couple Favre interceptions away from having a perfect record, and look to be one of the most balanced teams in football, but Washington has only allowed 2 touchdowns through the air this season. It will be up to #4 to rally his squad and bounce back from last Sunday night’s loss to the Bears. I like the Packers by a touchdown because they’re in at Lambeau, but I think they may be a little worse than everyone thinks while the ‘Skins are probably underrated. Watch out.
CARDINALS (-4) over Panthers
It is very possible that the combined age of the starting quarterbacks in this one will be 80. Even if Vinny Testaverde doesn’t see any time against Kurt Warner, it is still hilarious that both of these guys have jobs. Seriously, the Pat’s backup Matt Cassel could start for either of these teams, and probably a handful of others in the league (try San Fran, Atlanta, Minnesota and Miami). Shouldn’t we be getting a 2nd round pick for him, because if Brady goes down we’re screwed anyway. Oh, I almost forgot, analysis! The Cards have a better quarterback, better offense, better defense and are at home. They’ll win easily.
Patriots (-5) over COWBOYS
For the record this game was an even pickem in Tuesday morning’s globe. I knew it wouldn’t stay that way for long after Romo’s debacle Monday night, I just didn’t think it would jump 5 points. Fact is, I would be taking Brady and co. at -13.5. I know the Cowboys have a good defense and some serious play makers, but Dallas exposed themselves against the Bills and nobody is better at analyzing film and exploiting weaknesses than Bill Belichick.
CHARGERS (-9.5) over Raiders
By routing the Broncos in Mile High San Diego took themselves out of the New Orleans Saints category and got some of their swagger back. While I hate how big this line is (I would love it at 6.5) I still have to go with the Chargers in another statement game. I don’t like picking favorites with big spreads in a division game, but Oakland has allowed 25 points per game this season, and I don’t see why Tomlinson and friends won’t put up a 30 spot.
SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Saints
Speaking of the hapless helpless Deuceless Saints, they’re playing on NBC’s Sunday night game in the loudest stadium in professional sports. AND ONLY 6.5 POINT DOGS! I guarantee this will be 8 by kickoff (thats why I’m picking on Wednesday). This won’t be a rout because the ‘Hawks aren’t all that incredible, but c’mon, the Saints have allowed twice as many points per game than Seattle, which brings a healthy Shaun Alexander to the table. ‘Hawks 28 Saints 13.
Giants (-3.5) over FALCONS
Now for the Monday nighter. ESPN Radio’s Colin Cowherd has a great way of picking games that he doesn’t have an immediate gut reaction on. He looks at what he calls the 2 most important stats in football: turnover ratio and 3rd down conversions.
Atlanta enters the game with a +2 giveaway/takeaway ratio, while New York is at -1. Atlanta has converted 42.1% of 3rd downs, while New York is better at 44.6%.
What does this tell us? I have no idea. I like the Giants by a touchdown in a wacky one. As we saw on the last installment of Monday Night Football, weird things happen when the sun goes down.
