The latest installment of MTV’s Real World/Road Rules Challenge begins tonight with the premiere of The Island and Sports Fan Paradise would be dropping the ball if we didn’t provide some analysis. While the summary from mtv.com isn’t 100% conclusive as to how the game will be decided, it provides enough info for a fantasy draft, and for me to release some preliminary odds.

Show Summary:

Somewhere off the coast of Panama, 20 former Real Worlders and Road Rulers are dropped into shark-infested waters. After swimming for safety, they come upon The Island. Here, veterans and rookies alike will compete for a share of a $300,000 buried treasure during the latest season of The Real World/Road Rules Challenge. But this time around, say goodbye to weekly challenges because survival is the only challenge. Gone are the days when a comfy bed and a fully stocked bar greeted the contestants after a difficult day. On The Island, competitors will have to find their own food and shelter. Staying in the game won’t be half as hard as staying alive in the harsh jungle wilderness. And, for the first time ever, there are no predetermined teams going into this Real World/Road Rules Challenge. That means it’s up to the contestants to forge their own alliances — or not. Who will be left out? Who will opt to be a loner? Which alliances will be torn apart by treachery? Only time will tell…

Of course, the social aspect is only one facet of this complex competition. During their time on The Island, contestants must construct two boats that they will eventually use to reach a nearby island. On the other island, $300,000 in gold awaits the first four people to lay claim to it. How will they build these boats? Materials will be air-dropped in every few days, but it’s up to the contestants to assemble the pieces and make sure their vessels are seaworthy. Once the boats are complete, only eight key-holders will be allowed to board. In order to get a key, contestants must risk it all in a three-way face-off. Yup, each week three contestants do battle, and one leaves — leaves for the other island, that is. After each face-off, the winner receives a key, and one of the losers is voted off The Island.

Naturally, the rules can change at any time and no key-holder is ever completely safe. While friendships and alliances are extremely important in such a cutthroat game, romance just might trump them both. When old flames are reunited and new relationships emerge, anything can happen. Some contestants might let their hearts lead them right out of the game while others might try to charm their way to victory.

But no matter what happens, drama is inevitable. Anything goes in this 20-person melee, but only four will emerge victorious. It’s a race for buried treasure unlike any other, where staying alive is just as important as staying ahead of the game. Drama, heartbreak and treachery are all guaranteed, so just one question remains: who will conquer The Island?

So I know that was a little confusing, but I am going to base the odds on there being 4 winners, 2 guys and 2 girls. I’m not sure that gender will even have anything to do with it, but I can’t imagine coed face-offs. For the sake of gratuitous gambling lets assume I’m on target.

Now, why should you give a shit about my opinion on this? 3 reasons:

1) I dominated my Fantasy Gauntlet league this winter. It wasn’t even close, I ran away with it.

2) I picked Amanda to win Age of Love after the 3rd episode.

3) Nobody knows more about MTV Challenges as I do. Nobody. Well, maybe somebody, but nobody you know.

Lets get to the odds…

50-1 Ashlii, Real World Sydney

I gave up on this season of the Real World about halfway through, right when the chick with huge boobs left, so I don’t know that much about her replacement Ashlii. She seems like your typical immature girl who can’t wait to get on a challenge so the nation can watch her get banged by a guy like Brad or C.T. The only reason her odds aren’t 100-1 is because she is hot enough to get a guy like Abram or Derrick who could potentially carry her to the finals.

50-1 Kelly Anne, Real World Sydney

Like Ashlii, she is a newbie and doesn’t stand much of a chance. She was the nice girl on her season and their are 4 Sydney cast mates on the Island, so I suppose she could have a small alliance going for her. The fact is the Freshman just don’t do well on challenges. I don’t care if this one is different and if all the rules are thrown out the window…the newbs are gonna get pwned like they always do.


40-1 Colie, Real World: Denver

This is Colie’s 2nd challenge, which means she has an idea of what its all about, but I really don’t think that is going to help her. Lets face it, she is a terrible athlete. Like, one of the worst athletes I have ever seen. If I were stranded on a desert island she is probably the last person I would want to have my back. Her only advantage, like Ashlii and Kelly Anne, is to start banging Derrick and let him carry you to the finish, but based on the way most of the guys reacted to her shameless passes on Inferno 3 (”she was basically handing out her vagina, and we were like, ‘no thanks’”), she doesn’t stand a chance.

25-1 Johanna, Real World: Austin

The Peruvian Princess is coming off a “win” in the Gauntlet 3 (the Rookies were terrible but took the top prize because Eric was too fat to finish the final challenge) and I have to admit she was decent. She didn’t light the world on fire, but she was athletic enough so as not to stand out and manipulative enough to keep herself in the game. She broke up with Wes, so she has a chance to latch on with one of the stronger guys, but she isn’t one of the hottest girls on the island so I don’t see it happening. I like her chances in a team event, but she is definitely not a top-2 competitor. Long shot at best.

20-1 Tonya, Real World:Chicago, about 10-15 challenges and a couple softcore pornos

What is there to say about Tonya that hasn’t already been said? She is a slightly below average competitor with waaay below average mental stability. But for some reason I kind of like her in this challenge. If Tonya is anything, she is a survivor. She is like a cockroach, or Cher, and The Island seems like it is all about surviving, so I say she has a shot. The main thing that has plagued her on other challenges is that all the girls hate her and try to get her voted off (remember the “I Hate Tonya Club”?). This season, since it is every person for themselves, the fact that the rest of the bitches don’t like her shouldn’t be a disadvantage. Despite her lack of female support in the past, it has always seemed like most of the guys (Kenny, Derrick, Abram) like her, so she may have some of the top competitors in her corner. The only reason she isn’t at 10-1 odds is because there is always a strong chance she will emotionally combust halfway through the season.

10-1 Robin, Real World: San Diego

I don’t know the stats but this has to be Robin’s 7th or 8th challenge. Actually, hold on, Wikipedia exists for a reason…

…OK, so this is her 6th challenge. Whatever, I was close. I like Robin to do well in challenges because shes a tough bitch and nobody really wants to go against her in one-on-one competitions. She is also experienced and people like her, which means she avoids the chopping block more than others. That said, she has always leaned heavily on San Diego castmate Brad, and he is off making a real living this season. Still a bit of a long shot but she’ll have her opportunities.


10-1 Jenn, Real World: Denver

Some people might think these odds are a little too favorable, but I disagree. She showed a lot of spunk during Inferno III, winning a few 1-on-1 Infernos before finally being sent home. She is in good shape, shes scrappy, and most importantly she is hot as hell. I have her at 10-1 odds to win, but 2-1 odds to bang Abram on the first night. And trust me, Abram is a good guy to team up with.


4-1 Paula, Real World: Key West

1. Great athlete
2. Everyone likes her
3. Flies under the radar
4. Used to be anorexic so surviving on an island with no food shouldn’t be a challenge


5-2 Rachel, Road Rules: Campus Crawl

1. Veteran, this is her 5th challenge
2. Took a bath with Abram a few seasons ago…the guys love her
3. Lesbian
4. Personal trainer
5. I just need to reiterate that she is a lesbian personal trainer. Lets see Kelli Anne try and take her down.

1-1 Evelyn, Fresh Meat

This chick is a beast. One of the Veteran males on Gauntlet 3 said it best: “She is our 11th guy.” She is the strongest of the ladies by far, it isn’t even close. She dominates the female side more than Mike the Miz or Alton ever dominated the dudes. The sports equivalent of Ev in these challenges is like Bo Jackson in his prime playing against a Pop Warner team…and not one of those Pop Warner teams that wear the Under Armor and come from a tough neighborhood, I’m talking like Needham-Wellesley Pop Warner. If she weren’t a little stupid and easily manipulated her odds would be at about 1-5.

50-1 Ryan, Fresh Meat

I’ll admit that he showed some grit during the last season, winning a couple gauntlets and scoring some points for Bardo’s fruity fantasy team. And I suppose I should keep in mind that hes gay so all the girls love him, but how far can that take him? I don’t know about Dave, and Dunbar is a little questionable, but I don’t think he will have any homo-alliances this season. He doesn’t stand a chance.


30-1 Dave, Real World: Hollywood

In all honesty you should probably jump all over this bet. I say this because I know nothing about him, he could be a decent competitor. But I didn’t watch a minute of his season and I have never heard of this chump. He doesn’t look like anyone special and he probably doesn’t know one other person on the island. Good luck Dave, you’ll need it.

10-1 Dunbar, Real World: Sydney
10-1 Cohutta, Real World: Sydney

There are 4 Sydney cast members on this Challenge, more than any other. If they want to, and they play shit right, they have an instant alliance. Now, I think both of these toolbags are going to suck, but if the name of the game really is grouping together for survival, then the males on Team Sydney has at least a 10% chance.


8-1 Kenny, Fresh Meat

The most handsome guy on the challenge…or so he says (over and over again). Either way, Kenny is improving as an athlete and becoming more and more experienced, not missing a challenge since he made his Fresh Meat Debut (this will be his 4th). The thing with Kenny is that everyone thinks he’s hilarious, so they are less likely to vote him off.


8-1 Johnny, Real World: Key West

Another guy who has a big advantage because of his partying skills. Nobody wants to lose a guy named Johnny Bananas. I think this will be the first challenge where he puts winning over a good time though, but I still don’t think he is big enough to beat Tyrie, tough enough to beat Derrick or bad-ass enough to beat Abe.


6-1 Tyrie, Real World: Denver

These odds are extremely generous, considering islands are surrounded by water and Big Ty has yet to prove that he can swim. I do like the fact that he is by far the biggest guy there, however, and I don’t see anyone calling him out in any sort of duel where strength could be a factor.


6-1 Dan, Road Rules: Viewer’s Revenge

Like Dave, I have never seen this guy before in my life. I did read his bio though, and it says he’s an ex-Marine. Thats good enough for me.


2-1 Derrick, Road Rules: XTreme

What can you say about Derrick that hasn’t been said before? My Dad is 61 and all he knows about MTV is that Derrick is the man. He has the experience and the balls to survive anything, a staged island with a bunch of pussies in their early 20s should be a breeze.


3-2 Abram, Road Rules: South Pacific

Abe is the total package, and my first round choice in the MTV Challenge Fantasy League I participate in. He’s fast, strong, smart (relatively speaking, the same way Derek Jeter is considered “white” in Harlem), experienced, and cool enough that people want to keep him around. If you can’t tell, I’m a big Abram fan. Whatever, don’t judge me.